Forex traders: 2008

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Forex Education Trading Strategies : CEE: Buy CHF/HUF, buy CHF/RON

We recommend buying CHF against HUF or RON, as we continue to see fundamental support for CHF and weakness for HUF and RON. This trade is furthermore a play on increasing risk aversion. We believe that the timing is right for this trade, as the rebound in the markets since Tuesday morning can be utilised to en-ter this position. HUF and RON look vulnerable: • The newsflow over the last few weeks has not been supportive for the imbalanced Emerging Mar-kets (EM) FX markets. We have long been

Monday, March 17, 2008

Forex strategy : EURUSD: Remains On The Offensive, Continues To Set Higher Prices

EURUSD - EUR remains clearly on the offensive trading to a high of 1.5688 after pushing through the 1.5462, 1.5500 and 1.5600 levels to close the week at 1.5674 on Friday. This continued upside gains is coming on the back of its break and hold above the 1.4955/67 zone, its horizontal trendline/ Feb 02’08/2007 highs. Holding at the present levels will put the next upside objective for the pair at 1.5700 and then the 1.5800 level, its psycho resistance zones. The weekly stochastics remains

Friday, March 7, 2008

Forex strategy : A crazy day may await the markets - watch the JPY!

US employment report on tap - bad news expected. Canadian employment report also up today. MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION Overnight developments: US Feb. ICSC Chain Store Sales rose 1.9% vs. 0.6% expected Australia Feb. AiG Performance of Construction Index fell to 53.9 from 58.3 in Jan. Japan Feb. Official Reserve Assets rose to USD 1008.0B from USD 996.0B in Jan. Japan BoJ kept the target rate unchanged at 0.50% as expected THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION Key event risks today (all

Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Forex strategy : EURUSD: Overbought Condition Weighs On Further Upside Gains

EURUSD -Following a fresh all time high at 1.5274 registered on Monday, the pair was seen consolidating on Tuesday and weakening in early morning trading today. This is coming on the back of an overbought condition currently seen on the daily time frame. In a bid to unwind the said condition, the pair could be seen weakening further towards the 1.5145 level, its 1.272 Fib Ext followed by the 1.5000 level, its psycho level and then the 1.4955/67 zone, its horizontal trendline/ Feb 02’08/2007

Forex strategy : Aussie Falls After RBA Governor Stevens' Dovish Remark

Aussie Falls After RBA Governor Stevens" Dovish Remark The dollar traded mixed on Tuesday. The yen was supported by continued carry-trade unwinding as international equity prices fell. The euro was moderately higher despite European finance ministers’ concerns over the rising euro and weak European GDP. However, EMU producer prices accelerated, suggesting the euro area still has an inflation problem. The Canadian dollar fell after the Bank of Canada cut its benchmark interest rate by

Monday, March 3, 2008

Forex strategy : EURUSD: Sustains A Third Week Of Upside Momentum, Turns Focus To The 1.5372 Level

EURUSD -EUR put in a third-week of consecutive upside gains the past week having broken and held above its key resistance levels especially its Feb 02’08/2007 highs at 1.4955/67.Following this technical breakout, upside targets are now seen at the 1.5372 level, marking its 1.618 Fib Ext and next the 1.5400 level, its psycho resistance level. The weekly stochastics and RSI remain bullish implying further upside gains. On the downside, supports are located at its 1.272 Fib Ext. at 1.5143

Friday, February 29, 2008

Forex strategy : EURUSD: Continues To Surge Higher, Eyes The 1.5372 level

EURUSD - Having clearly invalidated the 1.4955/67,1.5000 and 1.5143 resistance levels, all representing its horizontal trendline/ Feb 02’08/2007,psycho level and 1.272 Fib Ext respectively,EUR has now opened up for a run at its 1.618 Fib Ext.at 1.5372.Beyond there will pave the way for further attacks on the 1.5400,its psycho resistance and then another psycho resistance at 1.5500.The weekly and daily Stochastics and RSI are positive and advancing suggesting further strength though the

Monday, February 25, 2008

Forex Education Trading Strategies : Inflation focus keeping low-yielders under pressure as AUD and NZD continue recent strength

Key focus of the week on Bernanke"s semi-annual testimony before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION Overnight developments: Friday: Canada Retail Sales out at +0.6% vs. 0.8% expected and less Autos at -0.4% vs. +0.4% expected Quiet Asian session Monday opened the week, as equities continue strength into US" Friday close THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION Key event risks today (all times GMT): Sweden Riksbank Minutes (0830) Sweden Jan. Trade Balance (0830) UK

Friday, February 22, 2008

Forex Education Trading Strategies : EURUSD: Pushes Through The 1.4751/52 zone, Opens Up Risk Towards Its 2007 Peak

EURUSD -A follow through on a downside rejection candle has seen the pair break and close above its solid resistance at the 1.4751/52 zone, its Nov 09’07/Dec 11’07 highs on Thursday. This development supported by its daily momentum indicators action suggests further upside gains aiming at its Feb 02’08/2007 peaks at 1.4955/67 where a clean invalidation is expected to trigger its medium term uptrend and bring additional strength towards its psycho resistance at 1.5000.However,on any weakness

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Forex strategy : EURUSD: Recovers Off Intra Day Low, Continues To Target The 1.4751/52 zone And Beyond

EURUSD - An intra day reversal after the pair weakened to as low as 1.4613 level on Tuesday now suggests its continued focus on the 1.4751/52 zone, its Nov 09’07/Dec 11’07 highs remains in force with an eventual break of there turning it higher towards its Feb 02’08/2007 peaks at 1.4955/67 and then its psycho resistance at 1.5000.A rising channel on the 4 hourly chart and its bullish daily momentum indicators remain supportive of this view. On the downside, supports are seen at the 1.4444/86

Forex Education Trading Strategies : USD remains under pressure on continued risk willingness

Focus in FOMC minutes was on lower growth forecasts, but mention of "rapid reversal" possibility further out on Fed Funds keeps US rates rallying. MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION Overnight developments: Japan Jan. Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance out at ¥862B vs. ¥900B expected Australia Nov. Average Weekly Wages rose 4.7% YoY vs. 4.9% in Oct. Switzerland Jan. Trade Balance out at 1.22B vs. 0.8B expected THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION Key event risks today (all times GMT):

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Forex Education Trading Strategies : Carry trades finally showing signs of fatigue as equity markets move lower

US CPI and FOMC minutes up today. USD view still in limbo. MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION Overnight developments: US Feb. NAHB Housing Survey rose to 20 vs. 19 expected and 19 in Jan. US Weekly Consumer Confidence was steady at -37 Australia Dec. Westpac Leading Index fell -0.2% Australia Feb. DEWR skilled vacancies fell -2.2% Australia Q4 Wage Cost Index rose 1.1% as expected THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION Key event risks today (all times GMT): Germany Jan. Producer Prices (0700) UK

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Forex Education Trading Strategies : USD remains on the defensive

AUD higher on RBA minutes. Global inflation worries mount after Chinese inflation data. MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION Overnight developments: Reserve Bank of Australia minutes show that a rate hike of 50 bps was considered at the last meeting (the rate were hiked 25 bps) China Jan. CPI rose 7.1% YoY, vs. 7.0% expected and 6.5% in Dec. Japan Jan. Nationwide Department Store Sales dropped -2.1% YoY vs. -2.3% in Dec. THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION Key event risks today (all times GMT):

Monday, February 18, 2008

Forex strategy : EURUSD: Break Of The 1.4751/52 Area Required To Reduce Downside Threat

EURUSD - While recovery off the 1.4440 low(Feb 07’08 low) now suggests further strength, such upside incursion must break and maintain above the 1.4751/52 zone, its Nov 09’07/Dec 11’07 highs to open up more gains towards its Feb 02’08/2007 peak at 1.4955/67 and then its psycho resistance at 1.5000.A decisive close above the former will trigger the resumption of the pair’s MT uptrend on hold since Nov 23’07.The daily studies remain biased to the upside as they are pointing higher. On the

Friday, February 15, 2008

Forex Education Trading Strategies : Releasing the Code to the Schaff Trend Cycle

Schaff Trend Cycle (STC) is a popular indicator commonly used to identify or confirm price direction and market turning points. It was created by Doug Schaff and is based on the assumption that currency trends accelerate and decelerate in a cyclical pattern that can reflect the dominant price cycle of any currency in any timeframe. Developed in 1999, the STC is one of the most widely used Forex indicators today. Schaff created the STC “in order to improve upon the MACD and Time Cycle

Forex strategy : EURUSD: Maintains Upside Recovery, Eyes The 1.4751/52 zone

EURUSD - The bulls continue to launch more offensives following up on further recovery yesterday and pushing even higher in early morning trading today to shift focus to the 1.4751/52 zone, its Nov 09’07/Dec 11’07 highs where a break should open up further upside gains towards its Feb 02’08/2007 peak at 1.4955/67 and then its psycho resistance at 1.5000. The daily stochastics and RSI are advancing suggesting further strength. Initial set backs if seen should target its ST riding trendline

Forex strategy : Greenback Falls on Bernanke's Dovish Comment

Greenback Falls on Bernanke’s Dovish Comment The dollar fell against major currencies on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke indicated the Fed may cut interest rates further amid increasing risk of a US recession. After falling overnight on stronger-than-forecast Japanese GDP which led to a Japanese equity rally and increased risk appetite, the yen later reversed its losses on falling US stocks. The Australian dollar rose on bets the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Forex strategy : EURUSD: Recovers Higher, Break Above The 1.4751/52 zone Required To Reduce

EURUSD - Recovery off the 1.4438 low printed on Feb 07’08 low continues to build up but as long as it remains below the 1.4751/52 zone, its Nov 09’07/Dec 11’07 highs, risks are for a turn lower towards its ST riding trendline currently at 1.4405 with clean break of there setting the stage for additional lower prices targeting the its Jan 22’08 low at 1.4364 and then the 1.4310 level, its Dec 20’07 low. The latter still remains the level that is expected to preserve the pair’s medium term

Forex strategy : AUD perks up on robust employment report

Surprise Riskbank hike yesterday boosts SEK. US Trade Balance and Fed"s Bernanke on tap today. MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION Overnight developments : New Zealand Jan. Business PMI out at 53.3 vs. revised 53.6 in Dec. Japan Q4 GDP out at 0.9% QoQ vs. 0.4% expected. Australia Jan. Unemployment Rate out at 4.1% vs. 4.3% expected Australia Jan. Employment Change out at 26.8k vs. 15.0k expected New Zealand Jan. Non-resident Bond Holdings held steady at 76.2% Australia Feb. Consumer Inflation

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Forex basic : The 3 Duck's Trading System

A simple system that will improve your trading Contents The 3 Duck’s Trading System 1. A common sense approach to price observation 2. Back testing – I’m not a big fan 3. Risk versus Reward – It’s GOLDEN 4. Getting started 5. The first duck 6. The second duck 7. The third duck 8. Entries – A good entry makes a big difference 9. Stop-losses – If it doesn’t work out, get out 10. Targets – Letting it run & knowing when to exit 11. Make it your own 12. How many pips can I make a week? YOU TELL

Forex strategy : US Retail Sales on tap

Australian consumers fret about high interest rates as confidence falls. GBP may see volatility on quarterly inflation report. MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION Overnight developments: Australia Feb. Consumer Confidence fell -5.5% Japan Jan. Domestic CGPI rose 3.0% YoY vs. 2.8% expected Japan Dec. Adjusted Current Account was ¥1855B vs. ¥1948B expected UK Jan. RICS House Balance fell to -54.7% vs. -52.0% expected and -49.1% previously Japan Jan. Consumer Confidence edged lower to 37.9 vs.

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Forex Education Trading Strategies : EURUSD: Targets Its ST Rising Trendline And Beyond

EURUSD - Although EUR has been consolidating since torching a low of 1.4430 the past week, its continued trading below the 1.4600 levels now risks further downside losses towards its short term rising trendline currently at 1.4397 where a decisive penetration should see the pair aiming at its Jan 22’08 low at 1.4364 and then the 1.4310 level, its Dec 20’07 low. The latter is expected to present a considerable support and preserve its MT uptrend but if the bears overcome that level, additional

Forex Education Trading Strategies : USD momentum waning - will we see a follow up move stronger?

Australian Business Confidence drops heavily to new post 9/11 low. UK Inflation data on tap. MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION Overnight developments: UK Jan. BRC Retail Sales Monitor showed total sales increasing at a 4.9% clip, not adjusted for inflation Australia Jan. NAB Business Confidence dropped sharply to -4 from 5 THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION Key event risks today (all times GMT): UK Jan. CPI/RPI (0930) Germany Jan. ZEW Survey (1000) US Fed"s Yellen to speak (1605) New Zealand

Monday, February 11, 2008

Forex Education Trading Strategies : EURUSD: Reverses Its Two Week Upside Gains, Risks Lower Prices Towards The

EURUSD - EUR closed the week lower wiping out almost all of its two weeks gains to end the week on Friday at 1.4504.Having failed ahead of the 2007 peak at 1.4967 and cut through layers of support to trade at the present levels, EUR now risks further decline towards its Jan 22’08 low at 1.4364 with a breach of there opening the door for further weakness targeting the 1.4310 level, its Dec 20’07 low. Breaking and holding below the latter will extend price weakness towards its Sept 28/07 high at

Forex strategy : British Pound Range Against Swiss Franc Offers Distinct Trading Opportunities

Trading Tip – Given a slowdown in overall market volatility, the British Pound has been trading within a fairly wide range against the Swiss Franc through the past several weeks of currency trading. Assuming that market conditions remain as they have, we believe that this represents an ideal opportunity to play the range in the GBPCHF. Medium term momentum suggests that risks remain to the downside for the carry trade-linked pair, and a short at resistance of 2.1762 seems to be the more

Friday, February 8, 2008

Forex strategy : EURUSD: Extends Its Decline, Aims At The 1.4310 Level

EURUSD - EUR continued to weaken Thursday breaking lower and closing below its Jan 01’08 low/.618 Ret (1.4310-1.4955 rally) at 1.4577/58.That leaves the pair targeting the 1.4448 level, its .786 Ret initially and later its Jan 22’08 low at 1.4364 with a loss of there paving the way for a challenge on the 1.4310 level, its Dec 20’07 low. This level remains important to the preservation of the pair’s medium term uptrend which has been on hold since Nov’07.Two earlier attempts failed to trigger

Forex Education Trading Strategies : Euro takes a beating on Trichet's nod to growth risks

Bounce in carry trades confounds the pessimists for now as AUD and NZD continue to shine and JPY suffers. MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION Overnight developments: US Jan. ICSC Chain Store Sales rose 0.5% vs. 0.8% expected Japan Dec. Machine Orders fell -3.2% vs. -0.9% expected Japan Jan. Eco Watchers Survey Outlook fell to 35.8 vs. 36.1 expected nand 37.0 previously Switzerland Jan. CPI out at -0.3% vs. -0.5% expected THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION Key event risks today (all times GMT):

Thursday, February 7, 2008

Forex strategy : EURUSD: Weakness From The 1.4967 Level Looks To Continue

EURUSD - Following its sell off ahead of the 1.4967 high (2007 high) the past week and its subsequent break through layers of support levels,EUR remains on the defensive as further weakness continues to be envisaged. As long as the pair continues to maintains below its recently invalidated rising trendline,chances are for lower prices to be seen towards its Jan 01’08 low/.618 Ret (1.4310-1.4921 rally) at 1.4577/45 followed by the 1.4446 level, its .786 Ret ahead of its Jan 22’08 low at

Forex strategy : ECB's Ever-vigilant Trichet in the spotlight: will he finally recognize EuroZone growth risks?

25 bp cut from the BOE on tap. USD picture still looking for clarification with EURUSD In the middle of the range. MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION Overnight developments: New Zealand Q4 Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.4% vs. 3.6% expected and 3.5% previously Australia Jan. AiG Performance of Construction Index fell to 58.3 from 59.2. Switzerland"s Jan. Unemployment Rate was steady at 2.8% as expected THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION Key event risks today (all times GMT): Norway Dec.

Forex strategy : FX Little Changed, Awaiting Trichet

FX Little Changed, Awaiting Trichet The dollar gained modestly against the euro and sterling ahead of tomorrow’s European interest-rate decisions but fell slightly versus the yen as US stocks declined increasing risk aversion. Mixed US economic data did little to change the overall outlook for the US economy. US productivity rose more than expected, but the reduction in hours worked points to further US economic slowdown. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will cut its key lending

Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Forex Education Trading Strategies : GBP/USD Developing Flag Pattern Heading Into ISM News from US

The Cable dropped since trading opened in London this morning, followed by a brief rally in response to PMI data out of the UK. Price is currently consolidating in a range between support at the S1 pivot point (1.9669) and resistance at the M2 median (1.9699). It is also being gradually pushed downward by its declining 50 simple moving average, forming a flag/pennant pattern. This is a Bearish pattern. At the same time, there is a Bullish divergence forming between price and the MCAD

Forex strategy : EURUSD: Weakens Below Its Rising Trendline, Focuses On The 1.4577 Leve

EURUSD - EUR continues to weaken on the back of its recent failure ahead of the 1.4967 high (2007 high) breaking through its key trendline/daily ema support at 1.4689/68 at the end of Tuesday trading session. A follow through on the weakness was seen in early trading today increasing the odds of a push lower towards its Jan 01’08 low/.618 Ret (1.4310-1.4921 rally) at 1.4577/45.On breaking and holding below here, EUR should target the 1.4446 level, its .786 Ret ahead of its Jan 22’08 low at

Forex Education Trading Strategies : Horrible US ISM Non-manufacturing

Carry trades on the defensive once again as equity markets swoon. AUD looking vulnerable. MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION Overnight developments: US Weekly Consumer Confidence dropped to -33 from -27 UK Jan. Nationwide Consumer Confidence fell to 81 vs. 83 expected and 85 in Dec. BHP Billiton makes hostile bid on Rio Tinto THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION Key event risks today (all times GMT): UK Jan. BRC Shop Price Index (1030) US Q4 Nonfarm Productivity (1330) US Q4 Unit Labor Costs

Forex strategy : EURGBP the Short Term Pair to Range Trade

Given limited event risk out of both the Euro Zone and UK, we feel that current market conditions support further EURGBP rangebound price action. A multi-month rising trendline offers clear-cut support for the pair, and any hourly close below this mark will nullify our EURGBP-long range trade. Yet traders should nonetheless watch for Thursday morning’s critical Bank of England and European Central Bank interest rate decisions. We would prefer to be out of this particular trade ahead of such

Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Forex Education Trading Strategies : Noise level increases on upcoming G-7 meeting

RBA raises rates to 7.00%, but market had already priced in the rate move. MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION Overnight developments: New Zealand Q4 Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.9% vs. 0.8% expected Australia Jan. AiG Performance of Service Industries fell to 54.9 from 56.9 in Dec. Australia Dec. Retail Sales out at 0.5% vs. 0.6% expected Australia Dec. Building Approvals out at -16.0% vs. -4.0 % expected Australia Q4 NAB Business Confidence drops to 6 from 9 in Q3 Australia RBA raises Cash

Monday, February 4, 2008

Forex Education Trading Strategies : The Technical Picture Prior to Tonight's AUD News

Australia is set to announce their Retail Sales numbers as well as an interest rate decision tonight. Thus far, on the Daily AUD/USD chart, we saw a high from at 0.9399 back in November 2007, followed by a retracement to the 50% Fib and the 200 SMA at 0.8536 on Dec. 17th. Currently price has broken resistance at 0.8992 (23.6% Fib) and is on its way to testing the prior high. Zooming in on an intraday chat, we find the Aussie pair to be riding its 50 SMA in gradual upward swings, though still

Forex Education Trading Strategies : EURUSD: Fails Ahead Of The 1.4967 Level, Prints A Reversal Candle

EURUSD - EUR put a temporary halt to its recent rise off the 1.4364 low on Friday after printing an intra day high of 1.4955 and subsequently collapsing through the 1.4921 level, its Jan 15’08 high to close the week at 1.4801.With the 1.4967 level remaining unbroken after a similar attempt in Mid-Jan’08 and a fresh one the past week followed with a higher level rejection candle, risk of lower prices can not be ruled out. In such a situation, the pair will target the 1.4751/52 zone, its Nov

Forex Education Trading Strategies : EURUSD posts a strong bearish reversal Friday

AUD is the market"s darling as all eyes on tonight"s RBA decision: market looking for a hike. MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION Overnight developments: Australia Dec. Trade Balance out at -1936M vs. -2000M expected Australia Q4 House Price Index rose 3.2% vs. 3.0% expected Asian stocks opened the week with a strong session, as markets across Asia rallied on the USA"s strong Friday close. THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION Key event risks today (all times GMT): Norway Jan. PMI (0800) UK

Friday, February 1, 2008

Forex Education Trading Strategies : EURUSD: Remains On The Offensive, Closes In O The 1.4967 level.

EURUSD - EUR continues to target its strong resistance standing at 1.4967 high, which represents its 2007 peak. This is coming on the back of a recovery following its turn ahead of its MT rising trendline from Aug’07 low at 1.3359.While this upside strength holds, risks are tilted towards its Jan 15’08 high at 1.4921 initially with a break and hold above there signaling further gains towards the 1.4967 level. Above here is required to trigger its MT uptrend on hold since Nov 23’07 towards its

Forex strategy : Greenback at Critical Support

Greenback at Critical Support The stock market continues to be the main driver for the FX market. US stocks had a volatile day but ended the day sharply higher after earlier losses. The greenback was higher against the Canadian dollar and sterling, lower against the Swiss franc and yen, and little changed versus the euro and Australian dollar. The yen pared earlier strong gains on rising US equities but was still higher against most key currencies. The EUR/USD was little changed after testing

Thursday, January 31, 2008

Forex strategy : Risk Willingness Limited after US Rate Cut

Mixed figures ahead of the FOMC yesterday made it a bumpy ride to trade the USD. After the 50bp rate cut, the USD sold off. Markets now looking into more heavy data and eyeing Friday"s US job report. MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION NO Retail Sales MoM/YoY (DEC) out at -0.7%/5.6% vs. 0.3%/7.2% expected vs. 1.0%/7.5% prior read. UK Mortgage Approvals (DEC) out at 73K vs. 79K expected vs. 83K prior read (revised lower to 81K) SZ KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (JAN) out at 1.70 vs. 1.95 expected

Forex Education Trading Strategies : Greenback Falls after Fed Rate Cut

Greenback Falls after Fed Rate Cut The dollar fell against major currencies on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve, as forecast, cut the Fed funds rate by 50 basis points to 3.0%, to prevent the US economy from slipping into a recession. The Fed said downside risks remain, stressing that it will continue to assess financial markets and the economy and “act in a timely manner as needed.” The EUR/USD finally penetrated the 1.48-handle resistance on the increased European interest rate advantage.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Forex Education Trading Strategies : EURUSD: Continues To Target The 1.4967 Level.

EURUSD - EUR continues to head higher pushing to a high of 1.4817 in early trading today. While price action holds above key moving averages and its rising trendline originating from its Aug’07 low, risks are for a push towards its 2007 peak standing at 1.4967 with a loss of there triggering price extension aiming at the 1.5000 level, which is its psycho resistance level. Its daily studies remain positive and trending higher implying further gains could be seen towards its 1.272 Fib Ext at

Forex strategy : FOMC rate decision on tap with 50 bp cut expected

Continued US housing implosion likely to lead to a 50 bp cut today, but the market already expects this. MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION Overnight developments: New Zealand Dec. Building Permits fell -5.2% vs. 0.0% in Nov. US Weekly Consumer Confidence fell to -27 vs -24 expected and -23 the previous week Japan Dec. Industrial Production rose 2.0% vs. 1.4% expected THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION Key event risks today (all times GMT): Norway Dec. Retail Sales (0900) EuroZone Jan. Retail

Forex strategy : FX Market Awaits FOMC Rate Decision

FX Market Awaits FOMC Rate Decision The FX market traded in a narrow range on Tuesday ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision tomorrow. The greenback strengthened somewhat against most key currencies after US durable goods orders rose more than forecast, indicating the US economy may avoid a recession. Durable goods are volatile but still indicate US economic strength. Traders reduced bets for a 3.0% Fed funds rate slightly. We believe the Fed will cut the target lending rate 50

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Forex strategy : FX Options trade alert

This week should be decisive for many investors who are waiting for the decision of the FOMC committee on Wednesday and the release of U.S. Non Farm Payrolls on Friday. However, the U.S. Dollar did not wait until the release of these figures to suffer some weakness. Therefore, our stop loss on our last Option Alert (BUY CALL JUN08 70.0 @ $1.20) has been reached at $0.80. For the coming weeks, we expect the U.S. Dollar to remain under pressure and we are still closely monitoring market

Forex Education Trading Strategies : EURUSD: Turns Back Above The 1.4751/52 Zone, Focuses On The 1.4967 Level

EURUSD - EUR rallied ahead of its MT rising trendline(1.4633) on Monday, returning back above its key resistance at the 1.4751/52 zone, its Nov 09’07/Dec 11’07 to close the session at 1.4785.A sustained hold above there is required to open the door for further upside targeting its Mid-Jan’07 high at 1.4921 initially and then its 2007 peak at 1.4967.Beyond the latter will resume its MT uptrend towards the 1.5000 level, its psycho level and possibly higher. The daily stochastics remains positive

Forex Education Trading Strategies : USD still on the defensive

USDCAD nearing crucial support level as commodity currencies continue to test stronger. MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION Overnight developments: Japan Dec. Jobless remained at 3.8% vs. a rise to 3.9% expected Japan Dec. Job to Appliant Ratio fell to 0.98 Japan Dec. Retail Trade rose 0.2% YoY, but Dec. MoM Retail Trade fell -0.8% Australia Dec. NAB Business Confidence fell to 5 from 6 in Nov. THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION Key event risks today (all times GMT): France Dec. Housing Starts

Forex strategy : Dollar Falls on Rate Cut Speculation

Dollar Falls on Rate Cut Speculation The dollar fell against most key currencies on Monday as investors increased bets the Federal Reserve will aggressively lower interest rates by 50 basis points at the Jan. 30 FOMC rate decision meeting to boost US economic growth. Larger-than-expected falls in US new home sales and home prices increased the chance of another large Fed rate cut, following the 75 basis-point emergency cut earlier this month. Interest rate futures showed nearly 90% chance of a

Monday, January 28, 2008

Forex Education Trading Strategies : Are NFP important?

Good morning from Montevideo, incredible how Asian stocks plummeted today, this is not good for today’s American open. I think we are going to have a triple digit loss in the Dow again today. Well actually I think volatility is going to remain in the markets at least until July, the second half of the year should bring calm to the markets, and we may actually have a trend to trade!. There are a lot of superstar’s traders out there that are in panic, yes guys, the easy money has gone. We are

Forex Education Trading Strategies : Are NFP important?

Forex Education Trading Strategies : EURUSD: Continues To Recover, Looks To Strengthen Further.

EURUSD-EUR EUR reversed part of its previous week losses to close higher at 1.4681 on Friday. This is coming on the heels of a turn ahead of the 1.4310 level, its Dec 20’07 low and subsequent break back above its earlier invalidated rising trendline.Although the said recovery saw a setback on Friday after the pair’s weakened below its Jan 01’08 low/.618 Ret (1.4310- 1.4921 rally) at 1.4577/45, as long as the it continues to hold above its rising trendline further attempts on the 1.4751/52 area

Forex strategy : AUDNZD Range Still Presenting A Strong Trade

This is our third recommendation for an AUDNZD range trade this week. The first setup played out nicely, though our restrictions on excess risk prevented us from participating in the profitable move. The second setup was stopped on a large upper wick on a false break. Through all of this though, the pair’s range has remained. Therefore, we will stick with this strong technical formation and will tailor our strategy to align our trade with the market’s direction. Trading Tip – This is our third

Friday, January 25, 2008

Forex Education Trading Strategies : EURUSD: The 1.4751/52 Zone To Give Way Before Further Upside Incursions

EURUSD - Although the recovery off the 1.4364 low posted on the Jan 22’08 has seen EUR break and close above its key resistance at the 1.4751/52 zone, its Nov 09’07/Dec 11’07 on Thursday, holding above that area is now needed to increase further strength towards its Mid- Jan’07 high at 1.4921.A turn above there will set the stage for an acceleration towards its 2007 high at 1.4967 ahead of the 1.5000 level, marking its psycho level. The daily studies remain in alignment with the above scenario

Forex Education Trading Strategies : Dollar and Yen Fall on Increased Risk Appetite

Dollar and Yen Fall on Increased Risk Appetite The dollar fell against most key currencies on Thursday as rising stock prices increased risk appetite and eroded the support the dollar had from risk aversion during the financial turmoil earlier in the week. The dollar is also pressured by the widening interest rate disadvantage after the Federal Reserve’s emergency interestrate cut and expected further rate cut at next meeting. The yen fell against all major currencies as investors reentered

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Forex strategy : AUDUSD Hedging Strategy Sees Considerable Risk And Profit Potential

Viable ranges are harder to come by given current market conditions. The threat of a recession in the world’s largest economy has stoked fears that global growth trends are flagging – a fear that is clearly reflected in prices. What’s more, sharp losses in equities markets sizable rate cuts from the FOMC this past Tuesday have generated considerable volatility in almost every pair that can claim a carry differential. While these conditions present generous risk, the AUDUSD range also offers

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Forex strategy : Kneejerk sell-off in USD on big Fed cut. Will the sell-off last?

AUD buyers in a tizzy over Australian inflation data and renewed equity strength - but new market theme suggests big risk for the Aussie eventually. MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION Overnight developments: Asian markets recouped much of the previous day"s losses in their Wednesday session overnight. Australia Q4 Consumer Prices rose 0.9% QoQ vs. 1.0% expected, but core prices rose at 1.0% rate vs. 0.9% expected. France Dec. Consumer Spending rose 2.0% vs. 0.8% expected Sweden Dec. Consumer